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°Ô½ÃÀÏ : 2020.02.05

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Prediction of volcanic activity

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ÅäÇÿ¡¼­ °¡Àå ÀÚÁÖ ³ª¿À´Â È­»êÀº ¹Ì±¹ ¿ö½ÌÅÏ¿¡ À§Ä¡ÇÑ Mount St. HelensÀÔ´Ï´Ù. St HelensÀÇ °æ¿ì 1980³â¿¡ ÀÛÀº ÁöÁøÀÌ ½ÃÀ۵Ǿî È­»ê ¹ØÀÇ ¸¶±×¸¶°¡ ¿òÁ÷Àδٴ »ç½ÇÀÌ °üÂûµÇ¾ú½À´Ï´Ù. ¶ÇÇÑ ¸¶±×¸¶°¡ ÁöÇÏ¿¡¼­ À§·Î ¿Ã¶ó¿È¿¡ µû¶ó ºÏÂÊÁö¿ªÀÌ À¶±âÇß½À´Ï´Ù. ±× ÈÄ ¸î Â÷·Ê ÀÛÀº È­»ê Æø¹ßÀ» ÀÏÀ¸Ä×À¸³ª Àü¹®°¡µéÀº ÀÌ°ÍÀÌ ÀϹÝÀûÀÎ ¼öÁ÷Æø¹ßÀ̶ó°í ¿¹ÃøÇß½À´Ï´Ù. ±×·¯³ª ¿¹»ó°ú ´Ù¸£°Ô 1980³â 5¿ù 18ÀÏ, °©ÀÚ±â Ãø¸éÆø¹ß(lateral blast)ÀÌ ÀϾ 600§´¿¡ ´ÞÇÏ´Â Áö¿ªÀÌ ÆóÇã·Î º¯ÇßÀ¸¸ç 57¸íÀÌ »ç¸ÁÇß½À´Ï´Ù.

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1. ÁöÁøÈ°µ¿µµ (seismicity)

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Seismic Waves (Seismicity)

[edit] General principles of volcano seismology

Seismic activity (earthquakes and tremors) always occurs as volcanoes awaken and prepare to erupt and are a very important link to eruptions. Some volcanoes normally have continuing low-level seismic activity, but an increase may signal a greater likelihood of an eruption. The types of earthquakes that occur and where they start and end are also key signs. Volcanic seismicity has three major forms: short-period earthquake, long-period earthquake, and harmonic tremor.

 

2. °¡½º ºÐÃâ (Gas emissions)

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Gas emissions

Gas and ash plume erupted from Mount Pinatubo, Philippines.
As magma nears the surface and its pressure decreases, gases escape. This process is much like what happens when you open a bottle of soda and carbon dioxide escapes. Sulphur dioxide is one of the main components of volcanic gases, and increasing amounts of it herald the arrival of increasing amounts of magma near the surface. For example, on May 13, 1991, an increasing amount of sulphur dioxide was released from Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines. On May 28, just two weeks later, sulphur dioxide emissions had increased to 5,000 tonnes, ten times the earlier amount. Mount Pinatubo later erupted on June 12, 1991. On several occasions, such as before the Mount Pinatubo eruption and the 1993 Galeras, Colombia eruption, sulphur dioxide emissions have dropped to low levels prior to eruptions. Most scientists believe that this drop in gas levels is caused by the sealing of gas passages by hardened magma. Such an event leads to increased pressure in the volcano's plumbing system and an increased chance of an explosive eruption.

 

3. ÁöÇü º¯Çü (Ground deformation)

¸¶±×¸¶°¡ ÁöÇ¥¸é¿¡ °¡±îÀÌ ¿Ã¶ó¿À¸é¼­ È­»êÁö´ë°¡ À¶±âÇÏ°Ô µÈ´Ù. ÀÌ °æ»ç¸é ±â¿ï±â¸¦ °üÂûÇÏ¿© ¸¶±×¸¶ÀÇ ¿òÁ÷ÀÓÀ» ¿¹Ãø

Ground deformation

Swelling of the volcano signals that magma has accumulated near the surface. Scientists monitoring an active volcano will often measure the tilt of the slope and track changes in the rate of swelling. An increased rate of swelling, especially if accompanied by an increase in sulphur dioxide emissions and harmonic tremors is a high probability sign of an impending event. The deformation of Mount St. Helens prior to the May 18, 1980 eruption was a classic example of deformation, as the north side of the volcano was bulging upwards as magma was building up underneath. Most cases of ground deformation are usually detectable only by sophisticated equipment used by scientists, but they can still predict future eruptions this way. The Hawaiian Volcanoes show significant ground deformation; there is inflation of the ground prior to an eruption and then an obvious deflation post-eruption. This is due to the shallow magma chamber of the Hawaiian Volcanoes; movement of the magma is easily noticed on the ground above.

 

4. ¿Âµµ °üÂû (Thermal monitoring)

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Thermal monitoring

Both magma movement, changes in gas release and hydrothermal activity can lead to thermal emissivity changes at the volcano's surface. These can be measured using several techniques:
•forward looking infrared radiometry (FLIR) from hand-held devices installed on-site, at a distance, or airborne;
•Infrared band satellite imagery;
•in-situ thermometry (hot springs, fumaroles)
•heat flux maps
•geothermal well enthalpy changes

 

 

 

 

 

 

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